Predictions, predictions, predictions

Are we in for a Hallowe'en shock tonight then? I have done a bit of number crunching and if Craig's get me to Blackpool bandwagon has worked, and if there are enough ties on the leaderboard to give him 5 points or more from the judges, he may still avoid the dance off. I think it will be touch and go whether Natalie ends up there instead of him, but I think it is pretty likely that a high scorer will be there (again), maybe with some unexpected company, to make for a really tense dance off. I will stick my neck out and say that numbers 3, 4, and 5 on the judges' leaderboard are in danger.

Top of the leaderboard - I think Jade and Ian are going to come out of the starting blocks racing after last week's dance off, and use the disappointment to fuel their best dance to date. She has been improving techincally and in terms of elegance, and they have a lovely foxtrot, so this could set the pace. The judges will want to score them out of the danger zone.

Anton has been touting for a 10 or 3 all week and could be rewarded with a simple but effective Viennese Waltz. However, the music is not a great choice, and simple VWs are never a great vote catcher.

Ali's previous ballet training is coming to the fore - I love her spins and spotting and her arm lines. She will be able to put these to good use in shaping in the paso, but will she pull of aggressive and passionate?

Ricky W - could this be the dance where he comes unstuck? He will need complete precision, which we have not seen so far in his dancing. He is a great natural dancer, but has not had the time to work on the finer points of his technique and this will show in the quickstep. I am also distracted by his topline and he seems to be leading with his shoulders.

Tuffers - really going out on a limb here. He has the best topline and arguably the best ballroom technique of the male celebs. But so far he has been too laid back to really work on improving. Katya was visibly getting frustrated with him in training, and doing her dance - the passionate tango - this week will either be sink or swim. It could be a car crash, but if he has finally been motivated to put the effort in (and with the weaker dancers largely gone now, he needs to stop coasting on his charm) he could top a 30 for this.

Zoe and the slowest saaaaaaambbaaa on record. I don't think she will pull this off, and as she is already perceived as a teacher's pet, the dance off could well be beckoning, especially if (as I half suspect) she is placed higher than deserved on the leaderboard.

Ricky - his technique is slowly improving, and last week showed he had musicality. The rumba is a hard dance to pull off, but he is an actor and he could just surprise. Erin and Colin danced my favourite ever rumba, so she could pull some great choreo out of the bag. She has been downplaying them all week, but I reckon they could just manage a decent rumba.

Chris - I don't think there can be any doubt about his popularity, but he needs to start joining all the dots up. Getting the routine right, getting the performance and improving his technique. It might be a bit of an edge of the seat moment watching him, but I doubt he will be going home tonight.

Natalie may well love the Jive, but the Jive does not love her. Her energy and enthusisam were palpable, but she was heavy footed, she was failing to point her feet, and the kicks looked more like a farm animal kicking out at an unwanted rival, rather than a light and frothy jiver. Hoping that she will not be paying the price for Craig's Blackpool obsession.

Craig - well you know lovely, I would be thinking more about whether a 20 was within reach than a 30. If he survives tonight, somebody better will be going; and if he gets to Blackpool, somebody else better will likely go. I can face losing Zoe and Laila, but anybody else would be a real loss for this series.